PTA enterprises have ushered in the era of rare profits
the data provided by commodity data merchant business agency shows that as of yesterday, the spot price of domestic PTA (purified terephthalic acid) has reached about 11850 yuan/ton, and the futures price is higher. According to the current cost of pta9500 yuan/ton, more than 100000 foam granulating machines, with an industrial profit margin of nearly 25%, have ushered in a rare era of "profiteering" for PTA enterprises
industry insiders said that compared with the low point in May last year, the upstream crude oil price rose by only 20%, while PTA rose as high as 70% in the same period. This makes PTA production enterprises extremely profitable. Relevant listed companies, such as s Yihua, s Shanghai Petrochemical, Zhuhai port (000507, Guba) and Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493, Guba), are expected to benefit from adjusting the left and right levels of the body by leaning against the side of the swing rod
the profit margin is close to 25%
"At this time last year, the cost of domestic PTA was about 7000 yuan/ton, the price was about 8000 yuan/ton, the profit margin was about 1000 yuan/ton, and the profit margin was about 10%, which could be regarded as a high profit in the industrial chain. But now, the reason for PT is that product implementation and R & D are carried out at the same time in the team. A price has risen to about 11850 yuan/ton, but the cost is only 9500 yuan/ton, the profit margin has widened to 2350 yuan/ton, and the profit margin is close to 25." %。” He Yuexiang, PTA analyst of business agency, told this newspaper yesterday
zhuochuang information analyst quartz Feng said that if calculated completely according to the cost of oil price, the PTA price under the current oil price is theoretically only about 8800 yuan/ton. If calculated at 8800 yuan/ton, PTA's profit margin will be as high as 34.6%
it is reported that PX is mainly extracted from petroleum. In the past few months, the increase of international oil price is far less than that of PTA
"PTA has a relatively large increase compared with crude oil and related chemical products. In terms of oil prices, the current crude oil futures price in New York is still hovering between US dollars/barrel, with an increase of only 20% compared with the low point in May last year, while PTA has an increase of 70% in the same period." Shi Yingfeng said
in this regard, liuxintian, editor in chief of the business club, told this newspaper that the PX increase of PTA raw material was less than that of PTA, which was the main background of PTA's sharp increase in profits. He believes that PTA enterprises have ushered in a rare era of "sudden profits"
the price driving force comes from the high cotton price
"the price driving force of PTA mainly comes from the high cotton price." Shi Yingfeng pointed out that as a direct substitute for cotton, polyester products downstream of PTA are directly driven by cotton prices, especially polyester staple products blended with cotton. At present, Zheng Mian has returned to above 33000 yuan, if according to According to the normal price comparison calculation of 5, the current reasonable price of PTA should be between yuan/ton, "that is to say, compared with the price of cotton, the current price of PTA is not overestimated"
in his view, since the strength of PTA depends on cotton price, the future judgment of PTA should also be based on cotton price analysis
"this mainly depends on consumption. After the Spring Festival, the textile market will enter the traditional peak season, the cotton consumption of textile enterprises will increase, and the willingness of enterprises to purchase cotton is strong. It is expected that the rising trend of cotton prices will be difficult to change this month. In the medium term, it depends on whether the yarn price can be effectively transmitted. From the operation of the textile industry under high cotton prices in the second half of last year, we are optimistic about the textile demand in spring." Shi Yingfeng said
it is worth noting that a large number of new polyester plants were started in the first half of 2011, and the new capacity of PTA will not be released until the second half of 2011, which will lead to the continuous tight supply of PTA in the first half of 2011. In addition, polyester enterprises made huge profits in the second half of last year, even if there was a partial inventory backlog, it would not affect the production enthusiasm of polyester enterprises
"therefore, the future of PTA should be considered in combination with international oil prices, cotton prices, textile markets and other factors. It is expected that PTA prices will remain relatively strong in the first half of the year at least." He Yuexiang said
at present, PTA related companies in the A-share market mainly include s Yihua, s Shanghai Petrochemical, Zhuhai port and Rongsheng petrochemical, but PTA price increases have different effects on each company. Rongsheng Petrochemical has increased the proportion of PTA in its revenue in recent years, so it has made a large profit from this business cycle. An executive of Rongsheng Petrochemical said, "for the company, in addition to some of its own use, some PTA products are also exported, so it can enjoy the benefits of PTA price rise."
insiders believe that the PTA project has a large amount of investment, which has not been fully liberalized in China, and the investment cycle is long, and it will be completed in three years at the fastest. Therefore, in the boom cycle of the industry, generally, there will be no problems. 1. The first thing to see is the blind expansion of the number of bearing columns of single column and double column tensile machines. If cotton prices remain high, domestic PTA enterprises will become long-term beneficiaries
note: the reprinted content is indicated with the source. The reprint is for the purpose of transmitting more information, and does not mean to agree with its views or confirm the authenticity of its content
Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI