The hottest PTA futures will be short in the futur

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PTA futures will be short in the future

PTA futures have been falling steadily since they hit a high of 7510 yuan the day before May Day, with a strong trend of falling below 7000 points. Throughout the second round of market, the decline in upstream prices is still the main reason

from the upstream situation, the decline in PX prices is mainly due to concerns about excessive long-term supply in the future. As for the insufficient consumption of refined oil in the early stage, it will gradually warm up with the improvement of the weather, and then the by-product of oil refining, namely PTA raw materials, will be sufficient. Due to serious oversupply, the price difference of naphtha cracking in Asia has fallen to a low of about four months. From the transactions of spot traders, it also reflects that the future market will still be dominated by bad news. The supply of these upstream raw materials will also provide sufficient raw materials for the subsequent PX plant. Now, based on the price of PX and naphtha, the production profit of PX is still quite rich, which also provides enough room for its decline. Even if the price still drops, PX manufacturers still have the power of market supply in terms of a single variety. According to statistics, in June, a production unit with a cumulative annual capacity of more than 2 million tons of PX will be put into use. If these capacities are successfully put into the production of data interface, coupled with the solution of naphtha, the current PTA market situation with tight raw materials will be fundamentally changed

from the demand side, PTA, textile and clothing products will gradually enter the off-season of demand after May. At the 105th Canton Fair, which closed on May 7, only US $3.23 billion was traded in textile and clothing, 11 less than the previous session. According to the difference of the maximum experimental force (loading capacity) it can test, the load sensor is also divided into 50N and 5kn 7%。 Seasonal factors in the textile industry will play a decisive role in June. The specific planning of the textile industry in the early stage is also difficult to show its short-term role. The operation of polyester in the downstream has been relatively stable, about 74%, but the sales situation is not optimistic. Many downstream filament staple fiber sales, especially staple fiber sales, are quite poor, and the inventory backlog is serious, which also restricts the downstream purchase intention for PTA. In addition, according to the export data in April, the situation of textile yarn and other chemical fibers is also bad, which also reflects that the current foreign demand is still not significantly improved

let's take a look at the overall economic situation: the United States, the European Union and Japan are China's main export destinations, accounting for 46.3% of China's total exports in 2008. Because the export proportion of the three major economies that transit through Hong Kong is relatively high, plus exports to Hong Kong, the proportion of China's total exports is as high as 59.7%. According to the latest report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the world economy will shrink by 1.3% this year, the worst economic recession since the Second World War. Next year, the world economy will gradually recover and is expected to grow by 1.9%. The economies of developed economies will contract by 3.8% this year, of which the United States will contract by 2.8%. It is expected that the pace of economic contraction in the United States will slow down in the second half of the year, and recovery will begin in the middle of next year, but the economic growth rate for the whole year next year will be zero. The eurozone economy will contract by 4.2% this year and 0.4% next year. The economy of developed economies such as Japan will show negative growth this year and will begin to recover next year, but the strength is not strong. In this context, it is obviously unrealistic to expect a rapid rebound in exports. This also sets a weak tone for the consumption of the textile industry from the source

however, in the short term, the current spot production of PTA is still profitable. Recently, the main factor restricting the wait-and-see atmosphere in the mainstream weak market of P steel raw material market is the supply of raw materials. Under the current situation, PX is still not alleviated, so the short-term PTA will not fall too violently

to sum up, the recent decline of PTA is limited, but in the medium term, it will be mainly short

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