PTA industry will remain stable as a whole if it continues to destock.
recently, many sets of PTA devices have been restarted gradually, and there are signs of direct operation adjustment of upstream product prices, which makes it difficult for PTA to rise; At the same time, the low inventory of PTA and the high opening rate of downstream polyester plants provide some support for PTA prices, so it is also difficult for PTA to fall
px supply is tight
the Asian PX market continued to oscillate last week. Last week, the crude oil price fluctuated greatly, but because PX is currently in a tight state, the PX price fluctuation is relatively small, which greatly cushioned the decline of the crude oil market price, and PX price also has a certain support for the PTA market
pta continues to destock
recently, the restart of PTA device is relatively concentrated, and the supply has increased within the week. The comprehensive operating rate of PTA is about 77%, but it is not discharged to 1 fixed load, except for the possibility of accidental maintenance and shutdown. PTA destocking market continued. At present, PTA social inventory is at a low level, and the downstream polyester inventory has not impacted the types of experimental machines, and there are more cumulative inflection points. Especially under the background of rising raw materials, the average production and sales of downstream polyester have also been improved. Therefore, even if PTA supply increases, PTA inventory accumulation still needs a process
the polyester industry has smooth production and sales.
the downstream polyester industry is relatively strong, and the prices of polyester and polyester have increased to varying degrees. In terms of operating rate, the operating rate of polyester factory is 89%, and that of downstream Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is 76%. As the downstream peak season approaches the end, polyester operating rate gradually declines. In the downstream loom inventory, polyester staple fiber inventory days are 1.5 days, DTY inventory days are 12.5 days, POY inventory days are 6.5 days, and FDY inventory days are 6.5 days. Therefore, the inventory days of downstream polyester products remained basically unchanged without obvious accumulation. Although with the end of the downstream peak season, the working rate of the low-temperature tank compressor in Jinan testing machine factory gradually declined, but it still maintained a high operating rate, and the rigid demand for procurement was more obvious
from the perspective of PTA fundamentals, the expected supply increment this week will be fulfilled, and the destocking speed of PTA may slow down. At present, the PX market is stable. In the short term, the polyester market still maintains high start-up and rigid demand procurement, and the cost and demand side are still supported. Therefore, PTA has a high probability of maintaining the oscillation trend. As the bottle chip factory enters the annual maintenance, the weaving load at the end of the year will drop significantly, and the support at the demand side will weaken. At that time, the center of gravity of PTA price may move downward
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