The hottest PTA cost support has a high risk of sh

PTA cost support has a high risk of short selling

last week, the U.S. debt event, followed by the U.S. sovereign credit rating downgrade by S & P, triggered a wave of general decline in the stock market, futures and other financial markets. U.S. crude oil futures fell nearly $20 from $95 to $100 in seven days, and the 1109 contract reached $95.71 as low as on August 9. Affected by the external market, PTA futures 1201 contract continued to fall for five days after hitting a recent high on August 3, reaching a minimum of 8648 yuan in early trading on August 9, with a decline of more than 1000 points in a week

domestic spot goods have a relatively small decline. Based on the data of medium fiber, its small load measurement accuracy is very low. On August 1, the domestic PTA quotation was about 9550 yuan/ton, fell to 9470 yuan/ton on August 5, increased by 180 yuan/ton on August 8, and fell by 150 yuan to 9500 yuan/ton on August 9. PTA, which just got rid of the current upside down, is now upside down again

spot goods are relatively out of stock, and the upside down of futures and cash is obvious. In addition, the cost correction since August is actually very small. Coupled with the operating expectation of PTA downstream enterprises to replenish inventory in the future, PTA should not catch up in the short term. The author believes that the medium-term market will still be rising

there has been a systematic decline, but inflation still exists

on the 9th, the National Bureau of statistics released economic data showing that the domestic CPI in July increased by 6.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month, and continued to hit a new high. PPI also rose to 7.5% year-on-year in July, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month. In the face of the global panic decline, the data release in July seems to be less concerned by the market. And this data is within the expectations of the organization, and the impact is even smaller

however, in the case of a sharp decline in bulk commodities, we have to consider the role of inflation on commodity costs. It can be seen that the appreciation of RMB and foreign exchange has led to the continued rise of China's foreign exchange reserves. At present, coupled with concerns about the economies of the United States and Europe, I am afraid that the influx of hot money is easy to increase but difficult to reduce. Moreover, the recent sharp decline in bulk commodities has weakened the expectation that the central bank will continue to tighten monetary regulation. The PTA trend in the later stage should not be too bearish

pta production cost callback is small

in July, due to the rise in the prices of raw materials such as xylene and PX, PTA rose in July. Crude oil has continued to fall since August, but xylene and PX have not fallen sharply accordingly. The recent PX outer market rose $60 on August 2, hitting a new high at the stage of 163. The right part in Figure 1 is the main part of the experimental machine at $5, and then fell. As of August 9, it fell by $15 to $1533, and PX fell by about 6% in August. In the same period, East China's isoxylene was more stable. The self quoted price on August 3 was 9800-9900 yuan/ton, and as of August 9, the price was 9700-9800 yuan/ton. The decline of East China's isoxylene since August was only 1%. PTA futures fell nearly 10% in August

according to 9700 yuan/ton of isoxylene, the production cost of PTA is about 8400 yuan/ton, and the cost two months ago was 8200 yuan/ton. At present, the registered delivery cost of 1201 contract is about 500 yuan/ton, and 8400 plus 500 is 8900 yuan/ton. The current 1201 futures contract has reached the registered delivery cost price of PTA. There is a high risk of continuing to chase short

the recent negative impact of crude oil on PTA is weak.

the supply and demand factors of spot in the medium and short term support the price of PTA. The negative impact of US crude oil on PTA is weakened. It can be seen that US crude oil has fallen by 20% since August, but PTA has fallen by only about 10%. And because it is widely used in data mechanics testing, the market expects the United States to launch qe3, which will stimulate the U.S. economy to a certain extent and may be bad for the dollar. It has a certain supporting effect on US crude oil

the output of polyester, chemical fiber cloth and clothing continued to rise

the output of polyester in June was 1.063 million tons, with a month on month decrease of 29000 tons, with a slight decline. Polyester production began to show an oscillatory upward trend in January this year, and the upward trend has lasted for six months. The output of chemical fiber fabrics and clothing began to rise in March and April. In June, the output of chemical fiber cloth and clothing was 131000 meters and 232000 pieces respectively, with a month on month increase of 3% and 11% respectively, and a year-on-year decrease of 8%. The output of downstream products has continued to rise for several months, which makes us think of the replenishment demand of enterprises for PTA raw materials. The author also found that recently, due to the influence of the capital market, some PTA downstream consumer manufacturers' procurement has changed from the original positive procurement to inquiry and wait-and-see

the export of clothing and textile industry has increased significantly in recent months

at the same time, the export of clothing and clothing accessories also increased significantly. In June, the export volume of clothing and clothing accessories was $1.45 million, an increase of 24% month on month and 26% year on year. In June, the export delivery value of the textile industry was 48.92 billion yuan, an increase of 9.8% month on month and 18.1% year on year. The substantial growth in exports of clothing and textile industries has given us some expectations for enterprises to increase PTA demand in the future. We should also see that the recent panic decline in global financial markets has made some export enterprises worried about future export orders

to sum up, under the condition that the panic decline in the global financial market is not calm, it is not suitable to copy the bottom in the short term. However, because the output and export of downstream products continue to rise, polyester factories and other downstream enterprises need to replenish inventory, as well as the support of costs, the author believes that if PTA futures still rise in the medium term, and PTA futures fall below the current domestic production cost of 8400 yuan, we can take long action

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