Top ten trends of China's energy and power transfo

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Wang Zhixuan of China Power Council: Ten Trends of China's energy and power transformation

: over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China's power industry has made great achievements in development. From weak scale, insufficient capacity and backward technical level, it has gradually developed into a modern power system with the largest scale, advanced technical level and sufficient supply capacity in the world. At the end of 2017, the report of the 19th CPC National Congress made a major judgment of "socialism with Chinese characteristics has entered a new era", and the power industry is facing new development opportunities and challenges. Supporting sustainable economic and social development and promoting the transformation of energy and power systems to clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy systems have become a new historical mission. Guided by the spirit of the 19th CPC National Congress, based on the modern power system, guided by the development of science and technology, and against the background of the rising tide, this paper puts forward ten trend judgments on the transformation of energy and power

(source: China Energy News id:cnenergy Author: the author is a member of the Party group and full-time vice chairman of the China Electricity Council)

the characteristics of energy and power transformation and the basic basis for judging the trend

the characteristics of energy and power transformation

historical experience has proved that energy transformation is not only a fundamental change in promoting the form of energy structure and operation mode, but also an important symbol of promoting the progress of human spiritual civilization and material civilization. At present, the worldwide energy and power transformation has the following characteristics:

① it reflects the basic law that human beings always innovate, find, invent, create and advance

at present, based on the continuous progress of new energy power generation technology, and relying on the continuous deepening of interconnection, mobile communication, intelligent development and application, we already have the technical foundation for large-scale energy and power transformation

② reflects the common pursuit of changing human destiny when the temperature drops below 4 ℃

affected by the greenhouse gases emitted by the massive use of fossil energy over the past century, climate warming continues to be serious, causing a real and potential significant impact on the human living environment. There is an urgent need to reduce greenhouse gases and become a powerful driving force for all mankind to jointly promote the transformation of energy and electricity

③ it reflects the basic value law of economic and social development

if the economic and social cost of energy and power transformation is too high, it is not only difficult to promote but also difficult to sustain. It is precisely because of scientific and technological progress that the large-scale energy transformation has predictable economy and feasibility

④ this energy transformation takes the conversion of renewable energy into electricity and the electrification of terminal energy applications as the core content, so it is called energy and electricity transformation

the basic basis for judging the trend of China's energy and power transformation is

① the "two Centennial goals" proposed by the 19th CPC National Congress and the basic requirements of China's economic, resource and energy transformation

the 19th CPC National Congress proposed that we should strive for another 15 years on the basis of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects by 2020 and achieving the first Centennial goal, and basically realize socialist modernization by 2035. From 2035 to the middle of this century, on the basis of basically realizing modernization, we will strive for another 15 years to build China into a prosperous, strong, democratic, civilized, harmonious and beautiful modern socialist power. The two Centennial goals are the powerful source of power for the sustainable development of energy and electricity. At the same time, the 19th CPC National Congress made it clear that to build a modern economic system is to build a green low-carbon circular development economic system, a resource utilization system with circular links between production systems and living systems, and a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system

② values and methodological guidance of energy development

energy values are composed of three elements: energy security, green and economy. Among them, energy security is the core, and green (including clean, low-carbon and good ecosystem) and economy are two important constraints. At the same time, whether from the perspective of energy strategies of various countries or from the perspective of energy development history, the core of energy transformation values is to ensure energy security

however, energy security in a modern economic system is meaningless without green and economic constraints. The methodology of China's energy development is "four revolutions and one cooperation", that is, to realize the green, economic and diversified energy supply side through the production revolution, and to realize energy conservation through the consumption revolution. The main support of the production revolution and consumption revolution is the scientific and technological revolution, the institutional revolution and international cooperation

③ according to China's national conditions, the relationship between China's energy and power transformation is to solve the problem of energy and power system optimization,

that is, to optimize the time, space and variety of energy and power production and consumption, so as to achieve the best result of the multi-objective game of energy, economy and environment

ten trends of China's energy and power transformation

conditions and methods of trend judgment

the time period is mainly before 2035, not more than 2050. In terms of content, it mainly judges major trends with certain controversy or uncertain conditions. In terms of methods, the empirical method is mainly used for qualitative analysis and judgment

judgment 1: on the energy supply side, non water new energy is developing rapidly, and the projects with better conditions have economic and application competitiveness compared with traditional fossil energy power generation. If the carbon price is taken into account, the competitiveness will be further enhanced. China's energy transformation will change the traditional substitution stage of replacing coal with oil and gas, and accelerate the entry into the stage of replacing coal and oil with non fossil energy. It is estimated that around 2035, non fossil energy power generation will account for about 50% of the total electricity

judgment 2: the functional nature of the power industry has expanded from the traditional requirements of ensuring the development of the national economy and the improvement of people's living standards for the quantity and quality of power supply (public and basic), to promoting the greening of the energy system, and further becoming the main body of the energy industry and the core of the circular economy

▲ map of the transformation of the nature of the power industry (proposed by Wang Zhixuan in 2009)

judgment 3: on the energy side and the power demand side, the proportion of electric energy in terminal energy consumption will continue to increase. It is expected that the proportion will be close to 40% by 2035 and more than 50% by 2050, becoming the absolute main body of energy consumption

at present, the proportion of electric energy in terminal energy consumption in China and developed countries is the same as that in China, and China is slightly higher than that in developed countries such as Britain. This phenomenon makes some experts believe that the proportion of electric energy in terminal energy in China will not be increased. The author believes that the proportion of natural gas in terminal energy consumption in developed countries is about 25%, while that in China is about 7%. China plans to reach 10% in 2020 and 15% in 2030. The main factors restricting the development of natural gas are resources, prices and low-carbon (relative to renewable energy) characteristics. To improve the cleanliness of China's end-of-life energy consumption, we need to simultaneously increase the proportion of renewable energy power generation and the proportion of electric energy in end-of-life energy consumption

▲ the proportion of electric power conversion energy and electric energy consumption in

judgment 4: with the arrival of the new era of electrification, there is still much room for electric energy demand. We should not only solve the problem of power imbalance and insufficiency faced by the people's needs for a better life, but also meet the needs of power for the completion of industrialization, but also meet the needs of future energy consumption based on power. Power will develop faster in a long period of time

from 1978 to 2017, the elasticity coefficient of China's power consumption (the growth rate of the whole society's electricity consumption/gdp growth rate) shows that the value of the elasticity coefficient in one year is between 0 and 2, and the interannual fluctuation is large, which does not reflect the stable relationship that power consumption is the "barometer" of economic growth; However, the 10-year moving average elastic coefficient curve is between 0.8 and 1.2, and shows regular fluctuations, which reflects not only the "barometer" characteristics, but also the periodic changes of the elastic coefficient

although from the experience of developed countries, the elasticity coefficient will be slightly less than 1 with the improvement of modernization, China is a large country with a population of 1.4 billion. Although the proportion of power consumption in the secondary industry will continue to decline with the development of modernization, it should be maintained at about 50% in the medium and long term. At the same time, considering the electrification of energy use in the future, the great development of intelligent devices and the rapid development of electric vehicles, there will be more space for the application of electric energy. Especially when electric energy is conversed with energy and materials, there is more room for electricity growth

in 2013, I wrote an article predicting that BASF would provide a solution for material design, and the power consumption of the whole society would reach 7.5 trillion kwh in 2020. At that time, it was considered to be an outrageous prediction, but now it seems that it may be the closest to reality. After analysis, I still maintain my prediction of the power consumption of the whole society in 2013, that is, it will be 11 trillion kwh in 2030, 14 trillion kwh in 2040 and 16 trillion kwh in 2050. This data does not include the power consumption of all energy storage devices in the future, otherwise this data will be higher

▲ changes in the elasticity coefficient of China's power consumption in

▲ comparison chart of the proportion of terminal power consumption

judgment 5: the constraints of power development will change fundamentally. The technical level of China's thermal power (coal-fired) units has become the world's advanced, even leading, and pollution control technology is also the world's advanced technology. The traditional biggest factor restricting power development, the impact of conventional pollution emissions on air quality, has changed. At the same time, the space to improve energy conversion efficiency and reduce consumption of water resources is also greatly reduced, and the power industry will gradually transition to a new stage of energy conservation and emission reduction led by carbon emission reduction

under the existing technical and economic conditions, the discharge of conventional pollutants and the discharge of heavy metals that may cause serious pollution and other environmental problems can be better solved. The idea to further solve the pollution problem is whether the input and output are cost-effective (this cost-effective includes environmental benefits). On the whole, it is still necessary to scientifically and reasonably formulate emission standards and carry out environmental governance based on environmental quality requirements (which are also changing) and constrained by technical and economic conditions. Excessive governance requirements and the expansion of the application scope of a certain technology regardless of conditions will exert unreasonable pressure on enterprises, and the side effects on the environment will increase, which is not worth the loss

some people believe that there is still a big gap between China and developed countries in terms of energy consumption indicators per unit of GDP, but this gap has little room for energy conservation in energy and power, such as the production of medical rubber glove samples, steel, nonferrous metals, building materials and other fields. To reduce the value of this composite index, we should work on the "denominator", that is, on the economic structure, rather than continuously increasing the investment in molecules to implement energy-saving transformation

judgment 6: the layout of power production and transmission has gradually transitioned from large-scale optimal allocation of resources (such as West to East power transmission), to large-scale optimal allocation of resources, distributed and local balance, and then to local balance. However, large-scale optimal allocation of clean and low-carbon power is still an important choice for China's energy strategic security and comprehensive optimal utilization of resources

the development of the secondary industry is still the largest power consumption in China in the future, and the layout of the secondary industry is restricted not only by energy demand, but also by other resources and regions. At the same time, due to the distribution characteristics of clean energy in China, as well as the mutual conversion between electric energy and other energy sources (such as hydrogen) and the optimization and matching with other resources in the future, a wide range of

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